After the resolution of bug 1277925, it is expected that the users would filter through Beta 48 (the next watershed) and then move quickly on to newer pastures (providing they had SSE1 and weren't on an old OSX version). It seems as though about half of them are sticking with Beta 48.0, though: https://sql.telemetry.mozilla.org/queries/2428/source#4497 This number is decreasing over time, but not at the rapid build adoption rates I expect on Beta. (the decrease seems more like a standard churn slope to me). The number of clients on Beta with !SSE1 or oldOSX is expected to be much smaller than the amounts seen sticking around on 48. I'm not quite sure what's going on here, but it seems anomalous to me.
We've seen this in previous watersheds and I highly suspect that this is no different. The main reason appears t be a combination of clients that don't run very often and / or for very long along with the requirement for all client versions prior to this version having to update to this version.
It looks like most of this is our old friends DWNLD_ERR_DOCUMENT_NOT_CACHED and DWNLD_RETRY_NET_RESET. See  (didn't feel like firing up Spark today). And the check codes  show that updates are being advertised normally, but corroborate that a lot of download "stuff" is happening. So that all says to me that we're looking at an ordinary watershed situation, as rstrong described.  https://telemetry.mozilla.org/new-pipeline/evo.html#!aggregates=bucket-4!bucket-12&cumulative=0&end_date=null&keys=&max_channel_version=beta%252F48&measure=UPDATE_DOWNLOAD_CODE_COMPLETE&min_channel_version=beta%252F48&processType=*&product=Firefox&sanitize=1&sort_keys=submissions&start_date=null&trim=1&use_submission_date=1  https://telemetry.mozilla.org/new-pipeline/evo.html#!aggregates=bucket-0!bucket-1!bucket-9&cumulative=0&end_date=null&keys=&max_channel_version=beta%252F48&measure=UPDATE_CHECK_CODE_NOTIFY&min_channel_version=beta%252F48&processType=*&product=Firefox&sanitize=1&sort_keys=submissions&start_date=null&trim=1&use_submission_date=1
8 months ago
Status: NEW → RESOLVED
Last Resolved: 8 months ago
Resolution: --- → WONTFIX
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